The historic peak of the hurricane season is right around the corner, and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts we may well have to batton down the hatches for a "very active" hurricane period.
While the official hurricane season begins in June, 80 percent of all Atlantic named tropical cyclones - and often the most fierce storms - roar through the three-month period from August through October.
"Our confidence for an above-normal season is still high because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized," said Dr. Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. "Two of the four named storms to date formed in the deep tropical Atlantic, which historically is an indicator of an active season."
NOAA is forecasting a 70 percent chance of 13 to 19 named storms, six to nine which would become hurricanes and three to five of those categorized as major hurricanes. NOAA says the conditions in place across the Atlantic match what was in place during several other active hurricane seasons since 1995. These conditions include above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a stronger rainy season in northern Africa where tropical waves originate and can eventually turn into tropical storms or hurricanes.
While boaters now rely on television and radio to warn them of impending storms, they still like colorful storm signal flags. The flags have been used by boaters for decades and include two gale warning pennants and two hurricane warning flags.
A single bright red gale pennant is flown to indicate a small craft advisory. The pennant alerts mariners to sustained (more than two hours) rough weather or sea conditions, either present or forecast, that might be hazardous to small boats. Flying two pennants indicates a gale warning with winds reaching 39-54 miles per hour (37-47 knots.) Gale warnings may precede or accompany a hurricane watch.
A single hurricane warning flag (bright red with a black square) indicates winds within the range of 55-73 mph or 48-63 knots. Two hurricane warning flags indicate a hurricane warning is in effect and that winds of 74 mph (64 knots) or higher are expected to impact a specified coastal area. When a hurricane warning is announced, hurricane conditions are considered imminent and may begin immediately or within the next 12-24 hours. When a warning is announced, it is imperative that precautionary measures be taken.
Hurricanes are deadly and it seems we are being battered with ever more ferocious storms. Just last fall Sandy hit the east coast - and Americans will not soon forget its devastation. Storm signal flags are a time-honored effective warning device to get boaters and tourists away from low lying coastal areas and onto safer higher ground.